Search results for "Mean reversion"
showing 9 items of 9 documents
SECULAR MEAN REVERSION AND LONG-RUN PREDICTABILITY OF THE STOCK MARKET
2016
Empirical financial literature documents the evidence of mean reversion in stock prices and the absence of out-of-sample return predictability over periods shorter than 10 years. The goal of this paper is to test the random walk hypothesis in stock prices and return predictability over periods longer than 10 years. Specifically, using 141 years of data, this paper begins by performing formal tests of the random walk hypothesis in the prices of the real S&P Composite Index over increasing time horizons up to 40 years. Even though our results cannot support the conventional wisdom which says that the stock market is safer for long-term investors, our findings speak in favor of the mean revers…
Is the environmental performance of industrialized countries converging? A ‘SURE’ approach to testing for convergence
2008
In this paper, we test for convergence in the environmental performance of a sample of OECD countries, with data ranging from 1971 to 2002. First, we use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to compute two environmental performance indicators (EPIs) in the production theory framework. Second, we propose the use of a sequential multivariate approach to test for convergence in environmental performance. These tests allow us to reconcile the time series literature with the cross-sectional dimension, which is basic when testing for convergence in regional blocs. The SURE technique is used, which allows for the existence of correlations across the series without imposing a common speed of mean revers…
A critical empirical study of three electricity spot price models
2012
We conduct an empirical analysis of three recently proposed and widely used models for electricity spot price process. The first model, called the jump-diffusion model, was proposed by Cartea and Figueroa (2005), and is a one-factor mean-reversion jump-diffusion model, adjusted to incorporate the most important characteristics of electricity prices. The second model, called the threshold model, was proposed by Roncoroni (2002) and further developed by Geman and Roncoroni (2006), and is an exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process driven by a Brownian motion and a state-dependent compound Poisson process. It is designed to capture both statistical and pathwise properties of electricity spot pri…
Disaggregate Real Exchange Rate Behaviour
2007
In this paper, we re-examine the “PPP Puzzle” using sectoral disaggregated data. Specifically, we first analyse the mean reversion speeds of real exchange rates for a number of different sectors in eleven industrial economies and then focus on relating these rates to variables identified in the literature as key determinants of CPI-based real exchange rates, namely: the trade balance, productivity and the mark up. In particular, we seek to understand to what extent the relationships existing at the aggregate level are borne out at the disaggregate level. We believe that this analysis can help shed light on the PPP puzzle.
Secular Mean Reversion and Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market
2013
Empirical financial literature documents the evidence of mean reversion in stock prices and the absence of out-of-sample return predictability over periods shorter than 10 years. The goal of this paper is to test the random walk hypothesis in stock prices and return predictability over periods longer than 10 years. Specifically, using 141 years of data, this paper begins by performing formal tests of the random walk hypothesis in the prices of the real S&P Composite Index over increasing time horizons up to 40 years. Even though our results cannot support the conventional wisdom which says that the stock market is safer for long-term investors, our findings speak in favor of the mean revers…
Monetary union and productivity differences in Mercosur countries
2006
Abstract This paper investigates cross-country productivity convergence among Mercosur members plus associates (Chile and Bolivia) and Peru, during the period 1960–1999. The testing strategy is based on the definitions of time series convergence by Bernard and Durlauf (1995) [Bernard, A. B., & Durlauf, S. N. (1995). Interpreting tests of convergence hypothesis. Journal of Econometrics , 71 , 161–173] and applies sequentially the multivariate unit root tests proposed by Sarno and Taylor (1998) [Sarno, L., & Taylor, M. (1998). Real exchange rates under the recent float: Unequivocal evidence of mean reversion. Economics Letters , 60 , 131–137], Flores et al. (1995) [Flores, R., Preumont, P.Y.,…
Cross-Commodity Spot Price Modeling with Stochastic Volatility and Leverage For Energy Markets
2013
Spot prices in energy markets exhibit special features, such as price spikes, mean reversion, stochastic volatility, inverse leverage effect, and dependencies between the commodities. In this paper a multivariate stochastic volatility model is introduced which captures these features. The second-order structure and stationarity of the model are analyzed in detail. A simulation method for Monte Carlo generation of price paths is introduced and a numerical example is presented.
Closed Form Approximation of Swap Exposures
2013
This paper provides closed form lower and upper bounds for the price of European swaption on cross currency basis swap with the presence of dynamic basis spreads. Cross currency basis spreads are treated as integrals of spot spreads, approach familiar from interest rate models. The spot spread is modelled by two-factor mean reverting Gaussian model that is equivalent to two-factor Hull-White model introduced by [Hull and White(1994)]. This model allows closed form approximations and relatively well fitting and simple calibration to the spread term structure.
European Option Pricing with Transaction Costs and Stochastic Volatility: an Asymptotic Analysis
2015
In this paper the valuation problem of a European call option in presence of both stochastic volatility and transaction costs is considered. In the limit of small transaction costs and fast mean reversion, an asymptotic expression for the option price is obtained. While the dominant term in the expansion it is shown to be the classical Black and Scholes solution, the correction terms appear at $O(\varepsilon^{1/2})$ and $O(\varepsilon)$. The optimal hedging strategy is then explicitly obtained for the Scott's model.